So what will it take?

We now see clear signs of several important “chaos” indicators with respect to the Trump authoritarian takeover attempt. First, the clash of narcissistic personalities has led to a complete lack of direction in the Elon Musk effort at essentially destroying the institutional framework of the government. Cutting real money from the budget is happening but isn’t the principal objective of Musk, which is to emasculate and destory the government as an institution that has the capability of reining in the personal power of oligarchs like himself (and, of course, mainly, he is acting on his own behalf). He wants to be able to control government completely without regard for any concept of democracy, to his own ends. This has come into direct conflict with other people in the administration, who are more typical sycophantic politicians, who just want their little fief and their little role in what is mostly a destructive enterprise: tearing down the institutions, concentrating power in the executive. But that means different things to different people. Then there’s Trump himself, who has these fanciful, completely ignorant notions about tariffs, about himself as some sort of golden age emperor, etc. None of this is founded on any understanding of administration, of continuity of government, of geopolitical or economic strategy. The man has an advanced and incurable narcissistic personality disorder combined with relatively advanced cognitive deterioration that makes it impossible for him to have valid and internally confirmed understanding of the consequences of his actions. Hence, despite widespread and irrefutable understanding that tariffs are taxes on consumers that might have very limited strategic usefulness but as broad based tax policy are not only highly regressive, but are inflationary, damaging to trade relationships, damaging to international multilateral relations in general, and likely to cause serious loss of both economic growth and general prosperity, he is insisting on forging ahead with them. And his sycophants go along. In fact, tariffs, in particular, are likely to yield almost no benefit, not even to the oligarchs whose main goal is to reduce taxes, make money by loaning the government money rather than paying the “price of civilization,” and use the government as a cash cow, in their own personal business interests. In other words, to make America a kleptocracy after the model of Putin’s Russia.

The economy, naturally, is reeling. Businesses have no way of predicting future confitions and so are cutting back on investments. Farmers are finding that signed contracts for purchase of commodities are being canceled, and so are losing money, but even moreso, are losing confidence. Tariffs, the threats of tariffs, are literally causing disruption of the auto industry and may make it virtually impossible for any of the American automakers to function, much less turn a profit. Massive job cuts in science, eduction, government direct services, etc., and cancellation of research, education grants, student aid… the list is virtually endless… all have direct and very negative consequences on the economy. So, of course, growth has turned negative, and although it has taken a few weeks, we are now seeing the markets react. And there’s every sign it will be an “ugly selloff,” turning to a bear market and long recession… or worse.

And the margin…the Independents and even some Republicans and a few Democrats who believed Trump’s lies that he would “fix” what was perceived as a high inflation (even though under Biden’s stewardship it had come down considerably)… are angry. They are hearing that medicaid, which pays for Grandma’s nursing home, Medicare and Social Security… all among the most popular social programs in history… are all under threat. They did not vote to privatize the post office and see graft and conflict of interest spread throughout the government. They did not vote to see inflation actually surge, and jobs suddenly become scarce, while other economic disruptions are making critical problems like unaffordable housing and insurance worse, and getting worse at a faster rate than ever. While the most indoctrinated MAGA cultists are all but unreachable, the margin, what was crucial to Republican victories in 2024, has started to slip away, and there’s every sign that this slippage is about to become an avalanche.

The great question, which keeps some of us from taking much heart from all this, in terms of grist for change, is that, while economies rise and fall and can recover fairly quickly, and policies can be changed and set on a direction that leads to responsible stewardship and recovering prosperity and effective and fair governance, what cannot easily be recovered once lost is democracy. If the efforts of the oligarchs to undermine the right to vote, and flood media with disinformation and outright lies, pack the courts with corrupt judges who have no real belief in the checks and balances of the Constitution in good faith, and the complete subversion and terrorization of the dominant caucus in Congress, are successful, we may not have fair elections. And even if we do, two, or even four years, is a long time during which untold damage can be, and is being, done not only to the functionality of our economy, but the very structure and safety system of our government itself. If relatively fair elections are actually held in 2026, there is a chance, maybe even a decent chance, that the Congress will revert to Democratic control, which would make it easier to hold back the worst excesses. And the courts are not… yet… completely subservient to authoritarian control, as they were, for example, in the Third Reich. So there is a path forward.

However, in my view, it is going to require massive protests by the people themselves. Even the Democrats in Congress seem feckless and bewildered… although the sleeping giant does show signs of awakening. But if we, the People, expect to stop this process of circling the drain, and throw the stupid fools who are ruining our country out on their ears, we will have to make it known that it is we who hold the legitimate power, and we are just not going to let them do this. And that means taking to the streets, calling and writing Congress, meeting and organizing, talking to people who are beginning to realize what a horrible mistake it was to support MAGA, and creating a huge majority coalition for change. We cannot expect a Green New Deal or perfect progressive policies. We must work first for basic democracy, fair elections, and preservation of our system of government. We need to extract not empty promises but commitments from anyone who expects our vote that the basics… fair elections, social safety net, realistic and patriotic respect for our alliances, cooperation and not stupid trade wars with our closest friends and allies, and government that is responsive to the people, taxes the richest fairly so that government can work for all the people… all these must be restored, strenghthened, and protected. If that can be accomplished by the time a new president has served a few months in 2029, or, hopefully, even before by impeaching and removing this fool from office, then we might, just might, have a chance to save the American republic from utter ruin, which is where it is headed right now. We cannot fool ourselves into thinking there are any guarantees. This can only happen if we, all of us, get involved, and make it clear that we are not going to accept what these people think they can do to our country.